CCS Weekly Market Report
This week:
Gas prices increased slightly near term, fell further out. Power prices day ahead, and longer dated contracts reduced. De-risking on positive Australian LNG strikes, support from Norwegian outages. Liquidity on all contracts still thin.
- Very windy conditions 12-14.5 GW for most of the week has reduced reliance on CCGT
- Norwegian extensions to current outages and further outages announced
- European gas storages almost 95%, lower injections than forecast. Some days of Germany withdrawals and room for further volume at French sites, only 90%
- U.K. gas storage dropped to 58% full overall
- U.K. LNG storage declined to 62%
- 4 LNG cargoes U.K. bound between now and mid-October totalling 650,000 cubic metres
- European LNG stocks remain at 57.7%
Power
- Nearer dated months had been trending down through the week before retracing, following gas
- Seasonal contracts been on a downward trend, assisted by falling carbon
- Day ahead down to £85 / MWH
- Large wind output, 7-12GW Monday, 12-14.5GW Tuesday – Friday contributing significantly to electricity generation stack
- Nuclear output consistent above 5GW
- Lower output week for solar
Wider Commodities
| Oil prices hit resistance at $95, some expecting it to push above $100. News from shippers that Russian oil exports fell sharply during the first two weeks of September. Russia introduced temporary restrictions of motor gasoline and diesel fuel to stabilise domestic fuel prices. U.S. FED maintained interest rates, hawkish stance long-term capped the price increases. | EUA prices increased €0.75 to €83.06 week on week. EUAs rallied on Wednesday after expiry of options contract. Strong auction on Thursday triggered further steady buying. UKAs now less than half price of EUAs. Remaining little market confidence diminished following government policy U-turn on green 2030 internal combustion engine car sales and heat pump targets pushed to 2035. | Coal prices down slightly this week. Supply concerns in Indonesia pushing prices up in Asian thermal market. Indonesian government slow to approve revised production plans for several mines causing supply constraint concerns. India needs to install rail capacity to move coal for future power generation, expectation of rail coal movement to rise by 83% by 2030. US sea coal exports risen by 50% week on week. |