Skip to main content

CCS Weekly Market Report

By Crown Commercial Service Trading Team | Posted June 17, 2024

 

This week:

Gas and power prices made gains across the week, with an increase in UK carbon, along with cooler temperatures, variable wind and increased heating demand. Contracts appear to be easing as the week closes out.

Gas

gas market movements

  • Outage at Nyhamna resolved over last weekend, with increased Norwegian flows picking up across the week
  • Overall demand higher than normal for this time of year with cooler, below average temperatures
  • Pick up in CCGT running to help support increased heating demand.
  • Asian LNG prices have continued to rise as an outage at Wheatstone – an Australian LNG facility - is expected to be out for a number of weeks.
  • Expectations of continued CCGT support required next week with below par wind outlook

Power

electricity market movements

  • Power contracts tracking moves in gas and carbon markets this week
  • Disappointing solar and wind output
  • Temperatures should pick up next week but not getting much above seasonal normal
  • Nuclear output should improve, with the return of Torness and Hartlepool reactors expected by the end of next week

 

Wider Commodities 

wider markets

Oil is heading for best weekly performance in four months consolidating gains across the week. Optimistic predictions for oil demand from OPEC, after it reiterated its forecast for oil demand growth this year. On the bearish side, US Fed seems unlikely to cut interest rates this year

EU and UK carbon have diverged this week with EUAs trading relatively sideways, digesting the results of the EU election results. In contrast UK carbon has gained >4% on a strong bi-weekly auction and continued activity from investment funds. £50/tonne could provide some resistance.

European coal prices have moved up this week in tandem with other wider commodities, despite the fairly bearish outlook. The US port of Baltimore has fully reopened after the bridge collapse, should allow more cargoes to reach the Atlantic basin.